Federal election 2019: results analysis

Overview

The latest Canadian federal election took place on October 21, 2019. The overall result was a Liberal victory with 156 of 338 total seats in Parliament, forming a minority government.

Leading up to the election, Alberta Pork covered international trade markets, business risk management, African Swine Fever preparedness, general agriculture policy, constituency characteristics and candidate profiles.

Analysis

What do the results mean for Alberta pork producers?

Compared to the 2015 federal election, the Liberals in Alberta lost three seats, with a gain of three by the Conservatives. The New Democrats had no losses or gains and retain their single seat in Edmonton-Strathcona, where no producers live. No other parties gained or lost any seats in Alberta.

This result means that 33 of 34 total federal constituencies in Alberta are now represented by Conservatives. For the constituencies where our producers live, there is no change in the parties representing those constituencies.

For each of the top-10 constituencies by Alberta pork producer population, no Conservative candidate received less than 65.6% of all votes, while the Conservative candidate in Battle River-Crowfoot led the way with 85.5% of all votes in his constituency. This was the greatest lead of any candidate in any constituency across the country.

In eight of the 10 most-popular producer constituencies, the New Democrat candidate fared better than the Liberal candidate, and in seven out of 10, the People’s Party candidate fared better than the Green candidate. This runs contrary to the trend in most other parts of the country.

Taken together, representation for Alberta pork producers has not changed very much, and the results can be considered unsurprising. What does change for our province as a whole is greater parity between Conservatives and Liberals in the House of Commons, and Alberta’s only federal cabinet minister (Amarjeet Sohi, former MP, Edmonton-Mill Woods) will now be replaced in the Natural Resources portfolio.

Constituencies

Have a look below at how voters made their choices in our top-10 constituencies by producer population. This data is accurate as of the morning of October 22.

Battle River-Crowfoot (123 producers) – New MP

1. Damien Kurek (Conservative): 52,497 votes (85.5%)
2. Natasha Fryzuk (New Democrat): 3,089 votes (5.0%)
3. Dianne Clarke (Liberal): 2,485 votes (4.0%)
4. Geordie Nelson (Green): 1,750 votes (2.8%)
5. David Michaud (People’s Party): 1,583 votes (2.6%)

Bow River (89 producers) – Incumbent MP

1. Martin Shields (Conservative): 45,691 votes (84.1%)
2. Margaret Rhemtulla (Liberal): 3,104 votes (5.7%)
3. Lynn McWilliams (New Democrat): 3,010 votes (5.5%)
4. Tom Ikert (People’s Party): 1,302 votes (2.4%)
5. Hendrika (Riny) Tuithof de Jonge (Green): 805 votes (1.5%)

Lakeland (78 producers) – Incumbent MP

1. Shannon Stubbs (Conservative): 47,551 votes (84.1%)
2. Jeffrey Swanson (New Democrat): 3,634 votes (6.4%)
3. Mark Watson (Liberal): 2,492 votes (4.4%)
4. Alain Houle (People’s Party): 1,440 votes (2.5%)
5. Kira Brunner (Green): 1,069 votes (1.9%)

Peace River-Westlock (73 producers) – Incumbent MP

1. Arnold Viersen (Conservative): 41,159 votes (80.8%)
2. Jennifer Villebrun (New Democrat): 3,805 votes (7.5%)
3. Leslie Penny (Liberal): 3,062 votes (6.0%)
4. John Schrader (People’s Party): 1,569 votes (3.1%)
5. Peter Nygaard (Green): 1,350 votes (2.6%)

Yellowhead (67 producers) – New MP

1. Gerald Soroka (Conservative): 45,206 votes (82.3%)
2. Kristine Bowman (New Democrat): 3,781 votes (6.9%)
3. Jeremy Hoefsloot (Liberal): 2,842 votes (5.2%)
4. Douglas Galavan (People’s Party): 1,576 votes (2.9%)
5. Angelena Satdeo (Green): 1,236 votes (2.2%)

Foothills (57 producers) – Incumbent MP

1. John Barlow (Conservative): 52,907 votes (82.3%)
2. Cheryl Moller (Liberal): 3,765 votes (5.9%)
3. Mickhail Hendi (New Democrat): 3,641 votes (5.7%)
4. Bridget Lacey (Green): 2,309 votes (3.6%)
5. Greg Hession (People’s Party): 1,668 votes (2.6%)

Red Deer-Lacombe (54 producers) – Incumbent MP

1. Blaine Calkins (Conservative): 52,684 votes (79.9%)
2. Lauren Pezzella (New Democrat): 5,888 votes (8.9%)
3. Tiffany Rose (Liberal): 3,437 votes (5.2%)
4. Laura-Lynn Thompson (People’s Party): 2,408 votes (3.7%)
5. Sarah Palmer (Green): 1,533 votes (2.3%)

Red Deer-Mountain View (51 producers) – Incumbent MP

1. Earl Dreeshen (Conservative): 54,111 votes (80.4%)
2. Logan Garbanewski (New Democrat): 4,836 votes (7.2%)
3. Gary Tremblay (Liberal): 3,724 votes (5.5%)
4. Paul Mitchell (People’s Party): 2,609 votes (3.9%)
5. Connor Borle (Green): 1,997 votes (3.0%)

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner (51 producers) – Incumbent MP

1. Glen Motz (Conservative): 41,498 votes (79.3%)
2. Elizabeth Thomson (New Democrat): 4,530 votes (8.7%)
3. Harris Kirschenbaum (Liberal): 3,467 votes (6.6%)
4. Andrew Nelson (People’s Party): 1,341 votes (2.6%)
5. Shannon Hawthorne (Green): 1,165 votes (2.2%)

Lethbridge (40 producers) – Incumbent MP

1. Rachel Harder (Conservative): 41,580 votes (65.6%)
2. Shandi Bleiken (New Democrat): 9,419 votes (14.9%)
3. Amy Bronson (Liberal): 8,642 votes (13.6%)
4. Stephnie Watson (Green): 1,999 votes (3.2%)
5. Grant Hepworth (People’s Party): 1,025 votes (1.6%)

More information

If you would like more information on the 2019 Canadian federal election, contact Andrew Heck, Communication Programs Coordinator, Alberta Pork by email at andrew.heck@albertapork.com or by phone at 780-491-3527, toll-free at 1-877-247-PORK (7675).